“El Nino Is Not Coming, It’s Already Here”: Meteorologist Explains What’s Happening

A major climate pattern is reshaping Kenya’s weather, driving unexpected heat and prolonged dry spells across several regions. Contrary to popular belief, this shift is already underway rather than looming on the horizon.

Climate scientist Hannah Kimani, head of the Public Weather Services Section at the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA), clarified the nature of the phenomenon during the 5th edition of the Annual Journalists Climate Training (AJCT 5), hosted by Power Shift Africa in Kigali, Rwanda. She stressed that people often misunderstand what this warming cycle actually entails.

“El Niño is not coming; El Niño is already here with us. El Niño is not rainfall, as most Kenyans believe. It basically changes the patterns in the whole world. In Kenya, it is associated with depressed rainfall or below-average rainfall over the western half of the country and the North Rift,” she said.

Understanding the Climate Phenomenon

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. This shift alters global atmospheric circulation, disturbing normal rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide.

Between June and September, western Kenya and the North Rift typically receive steady rains as a continuation of the March–May season. This year, however, the region suffered through prolonged dry spells and below-average precipitation.

The impacts extend well beyond rainfall. Kimani pointed out that the current cycle has altered temperature norms, bringing unusually hot weather during periods that traditionally mark the country’s cold season. Central Kenya and Nairobi usually experience chilly weather from June through August, yet this year brought bouts of extreme warmth.

“El Niño will not stop seasons from happening; it will…