Nigeria’s economy sees fastest Q2 growth in five years as industry momentum slows

Nigeria’s economy grew 4.43 percent in the second quarter of 2026, its fastest second-quarter expansion in five years, but the stronger headline masks a sharp divergence across major sectors, with agriculture and services accelerating while industrial growth weakened significantly.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said real GDP growth at basic prices increased from 3.89 percent in the first quarter to 4.43 percent in the second quarter, compared with 4.23 percent in the same period of 2025. The figure was close to BusinessDay’s GDP Nowcast, which projected 4.5 percent ahead of the official release.

The 0.07 percentage-point difference gives the nowcast a squared forecast error of just 0.0049. But the more important signal in the official data is what lies beneath the headline: non-oil growth accelerated alongside oil, agriculture strengthened, services remained dominant, while industry failed to sustain last year’s pace.

Industry grew 3.96 percent in Q2, down sharply from 7.46 percent a year earlier, according to the NBS. Agriculture expanded 4.39 percent, compared with 2.82 percent, while services grew 4.60 percent from 3.94 percent.

The economy is therefore growing faster, but not evenly. The question for policymakers is increasingly whether Nigeria can turn the improving headline growth rate into a broader expansion of productive capacity.

The recovery is gaining momentum

The Q2 performance extends the improvement in Nigeria’s second-quarter growth rate from 2.51 percent in 2023 to 3.19 percent in 2024, 4.23 percent in 2025 and now 4.43 percent. The latest increase also represents a stronger quarter-on-quarter pace than Q1 2026, when real GDP grew 3.89…