Dangote refinery drives oil refining growth to record 43.94% in Q2

Nigeria’s oil refining sector recorded its strongest quarterly growth in expanding by 43.94% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, as rising output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery continued to lift domestic refining activity.

The data was disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its Q2 2026 GDP report released on Monday, August 31, 2026. The report, which contains rebased quarterly GDP estimates, covers the four quarters of 2025 and the first and second quarters of 2026.

The increase comes as the Dangote refinery continues to scale up operations. Maintenance and expansion work completed in February 2026 increased the facility’s crude oil distillation capacity from 650,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 700,000 b/d.

The higher capacity has coincided with a sharp expansion in Nigeria’s refined petroleum product shipments, with the country increasingly supplying markets in Europe, Africa and Asia.

What the data is saying

The NBS figures show a sharp acceleration in oil refining activity through 2025 and the first half of 2026.

• Oil refining grew 37.46% year-on-year in Q1 2025, before accelerating to 43.94% in Q2 2026. The growth rate remained significantly above the rates recorded in the second half of 2024 under the rebased series, when refining growth stood at 19.42% in Q3 and 12.33% in Q4, with full-year growth at 14.08%.
• The expansion is also visible in the value of refining activity at current basic prices. Oil refining generated about N1.57 billion in Q1 2025, rising to N2.81 billion in Q2, before reaching N2.69 billion in Q3 and N8.05 billion in Q4.
• In 2026, the value stood at about N2.46 billion in Q1, before more than doubling to N5.36 billion in Q2. The Q2 figure was accompanied by a 90.85% nominal year-on-year increase, compared with 57.06% in Q1.

The latest performance marks a…