Economic growth to rise to 4.5%, external reserves to hit $53bn by year-end — NESG

Nigeria’s economy is projected to gather stronger momentum in the second half of 2026, with growth expected to rise to 4.5 percent and full-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion reaching approximately 4.2 percent, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has said.

In its H1 2026 State of the Economy report released this week and titled “Turning Potential into Progress,” the think-tank said the outlook rests on improved performance across the oil, manufacturing, agricultural and services sectors, even as structural challenges continue to limit the pace of expansion.

The oil sector is expected to sustain growth, supported by higher domestic crude production amid improved security conditions and the gradual rollout of upstream reforms. Increased domestic refining activity should also boost industrial output, cut reliance on imported refined petroleum products and strengthen the country’s external position.

Manufacturing is forecast to maintain its growth momentum as lower inflation, continued exchange-rate stability and better foreign-exchange liquidity ease production constraints and lift business confidence. However, the NESG cautioned that unreliable electricity supply, high borrowing costs, elevated logistics expenses and weak domestic demand will remain significant constraints.

In agriculture, improved rainfall and favourable harvest conditions are expected to support crop production and ease food supply pressures. Persistent insecurity in key food-producing regions and climate-related shocks, particularly flooding, could nevertheless undermine these gains.

The services sector is projected to remain the primary engine of growth. Financial services will benefit from recent bank recapitalisation, stronger credit intermediation and improved investor confidence, while information and…