Investors face governance risks as Nigeria’s oil & gas become active 

The commercial attractiveness of a $50 billion offshore investment pipeline may ultimately depend on how effectively investors can manage the risks surrounding the capital. As projects generate increasingly complex networks of contractors, subcontractors, joint ventures and intermediaries, the potential for procurement irregularities, undisclosed relationships and illicit payments also increases, according to Oyindamola Aboaba, a forensic and financial crimes expert.

In this interview, Aboaba examines the governance challenges accompanying large-scale oil and gas investment and explains why investors should trace not only the economics of a project but also the flow and beneficiaries of its capital. EXCERPTS:

Nigeria is looking to unlock up to $50 billion in new deep-water oil & gas investment. From a financial crime perspective, what risks tend to increase when large amounts of capital begin moving into a sector?

Large capital inflows create opportunity, but they also create complexity. In a sector like oil and gas, the risk does not come simply from the size of the investment, but from the number of transactions, counterparties and decision points that come with it.

That scale is already becoming visible. NUPRC says 22 major offshore projects expected between 2026 and 2030 could represent $30–50 billion in investment, following more than $57 billion in approved Field Development Plans since 2024. Those billions do not move through one transaction. They move through layers of contractors, subcontractors, joint ventures, consultants, logistics providers and other intermediaries. The more complex that ecosystem becomes, the easier it can be to obscure who is being paid, what they are being paid for and whether the price reflects genuine value. You also tend to see pressure…