Nigeria’s partial crop losses triple to 20 percent as climate, insecurity hit farms —World Bank report

Partial crop losses on Nigerian farms have more than tripled in five years, climbing from roughly six percent of cultivated plots in the 2018/19 season to more than 20 percent in 2023/24, according to a World Bank analysis of General Household Survey–Panel data.

The sharp rise, driven by climate shocks, environmental stress and worsening insecurity, is raising fresh alarms about food security, rural livelihoods and the long-term sustainability of Africa’s largest agricultural economy. Agriculture still accounts for about a quarter of Nigeria’s gross domestic product and employs more than one-third of the labour force, supporting staple crops such as cassava, yam, maize and cowpea alongside cash crops including cocoa and palm oil.

While outright crop failures remained relatively stable over the period, partial losses—where plants are damaged or yields heavily reduced without total destruction—surged. The pattern affected both seasonal field crops and permanent tree crops.

Weather and environmental shocks remained the dominant cause nationwide, responsible for more than one-third of all losses in both seasons and nearly two-thirds of partial losses in 2023/24. Seasonal crops proved especially vulnerable to flooding, excessive rainfall and related disruptions. Conflict-related losses, however, nearly doubled and now account for roughly one-fifth of national crop losses. In parts of the northeast, northwest and north-central zones, insecurity has become a major threat, sometimes rivaling climate risks. Unlike weather damage, which mainly cuts yields, violence can cut farmers off from land, labour, inputs and markets, or force them to abandon plots entirely.

Regional patterns shifted markedly. In 2018/19 the South-South recorded the highest total losses at 13.1 percent of plots, driven largely by…